DNV GL recently published the Maritime Forecast to 2050 which analyses the impact of the changing global energy system on the shipping industry through to 2050. The report proposes that by 2050, “only 47% of energy for shipping will be from oil-based fuels. The share of gas in the fuel mix will rise to 32%.”
The report explores how the expected shifts in energy production and demand, GDP growth, industrial production and regional manufacturing might change the maritime industry, and the impact on individual ship segments.
“Big and rapid changes are happening in the way the world uses and produces energy,” says Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV GL. “Our Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) shows that by mid-century, the energy supply mix is likely to split equally between fossil and renewables. Advances in energy efficiency will also see the world’s demand for energy flattening after 2030. These trends will impact all players in the maritime sector.”
The Maritime Forecast projects that heading to 2030, shipping will continue to enjoy robust growth. From 2030 to 2050, demand continues to increase, but less rapidly – with the growth primarily in non-energy commodities, such as the container trade and non-coal bulk. In addition to the changing energy production and export patterns, shipping’s fuel mix will become much more diverse. In 2050, oil will remain the main fuel option for trading vessels, but natural gas will step up to become the second-most widely used fuel, and new low carbon alternatives will proliferate.
“In the Maritime Forecast we can see the trends of today become the paradigms of tomorrow,” says Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen. “Shipping will continue its drive for greater efficiency by reducing costs, improving utilization, lowering fuel consumption, increasing vessel size, and deploying new technologies. The current wave of digitalization transforming the industry will also have a profound impact – advancing design and operation and creating new business models.”
DNV GL has published a suite of reports on the Energy Transition Outlook website, which are available to download free of charge. The main ETO report covers the transition of the entire energy mix to 2050. In addition to the Maritime Forecast, two other sector-specific supplements, based on DNV GL’s deep expertise in the oil and gas, and power & renewables industries, accompany the main outlook.
The Maritime Forecast can be downloaded from here.
Source: DNV GL